Macroeconomic scenario analysis
Make the assumptions behind a macro scenario inspectable.
A useful macroeconomic scenario is more than a chart. It should state the model structure, calibration, shock path, diagnostics, limits and exact vintage that generated the output. Bellman DSGE is built around that record.
Request beta access →Read the quick start →A disciplined scenario workflow
- Frame a bounded question. Define the economy, baseline, alternative shock and decision context.
- Choose the calibrated model. Select the roster country and review the installed archetype and parameter values.
- Check the solve. Use the determinacy and solution-method diagnostics before interpreting charts.
- Compare results. Review IRFs, fan charts, theoretical moments and variance decomposition across saved vintages.
- Export the record. Preserve the parameter dump, provenance hash and outputs needed for scrutiny.
What Bellman can help you analyse
Policy shocks
Explore a calibrated monetary or fiscal shock under a transparent set of assumptions.
Explore a calibrated monetary or fiscal shock under a transparent set of assumptions.
External exposure
Examine a small open economy’s response to foreign-demand, commodity, tourism or external-rate disturbances where relevant to its model structure.
Examine a small open economy’s response to foreign-demand, commodity, tourism or external-rate disturbances where relevant to its model structure.
Alternative narratives
Save and compare a baseline with explicitly labelled adverse, reform or sensitivity scenarios.
Save and compare a baseline with explicitly labelled adverse, reform or sensitivity scenarios.
What it does not claim to do
Bellman’s current workflow is calibrated rather than estimated. It does not turn a scenario into an official forecast, policy recommendation or causal fact. Results use a first-order approximation and model-implied shock uncertainty; parameter uncertainty, nonlinear crisis dynamics and zero-lower-bound effects are outside the current approximation.
Why save a model vintage?
Scenario work becomes difficult to defend when the chart is separated from the values that generated it. A Bellman vintage preserves a model run’s parameter dump, timestamp, platform fingerprint and provenance hash so two runs can be compared and the underlying record exported.
Next step
Read the public methodology and validation material first. If the workflow fits your research or policy-analysis use case, request access for the macOS beta.